Tuesday, December 01, 2009

Testing the waters

This is a test to see if this works (can't go into too much detail other than that.)

Looking back to previous posts (albeit erratic) show that I was spot on with the call on Dollar/Yen (122 seems such an absurdity now.) Big question, did I make any money on the call... I'll take the fifth. That is what I want to use this for is to bounce trading ideas off myself and off time. It is very easy to say that you called this or that, it is much more difficult when there is a timestamp involved.

As I did back then, I think the equities are insane. It is a difficult trade however, as it is much like standing in front of a bus but I still believe that we will see a substantial downtrade. This million dollar question (as always) is what is the trigger. Mispricings are easy to spot (relatively speaking,) the trigger that brings them back is the real hard part. Have to think this through...

Dollar at 86.60 (or so) verses the Yen is still a sale. Look for 84'ish (the '95 low) and then all bets are off. That could prove to be an interesting level to trade around as it is a rather glaring number. Have to think the barrier trades are loaded up. Buying the 82 puts might be the trade.

Well back to the day job...